I watched today's first EU qualifier (195 players participated, a drop from opening day in season one; I was surprised to see AbomB participating). Today was the first time to see how much Terran mech would benefit against Zerg from the changes to swarmhosts, but traditional mech players went down early (GoOdy (R128) and Strelok (R64)), while Beastyqt went through, so it's hard to tell. A number of fan favourites/former Premier players fell in the bracket:
R64: Harstem, BlinG, Majestic, Ret, NightEnD, PtitDrogo
R32: SortOf, PsiOniC, Tefel, Miniraser, Starbuck, Elazer, Adominus, sLivko
R16: Lilbow, elfi
R8 (qualifying round): Nerchio (who threw a fit between games), MarineLorD, Petraeus (once again narrowly missing out), and JonnyREcco
In terms of surprise performances, Jeysen made it to the R16 (taking out Harstem and souL); Deathmask also made it to the R16 (beating Ret)
As for the qualifiers:
GunGFuBanda makes it to Challenger after suffering the ignominy of being suspended last season; he notably beat Nerchio, Majestic, and PtitDrogo
HeRoMaRinE makes it again with an impressive win over MarineLorD; he also beat Lambo
Beastyqt returns to Challenger, taking out Petraeus and Elazer
Bly also returns to Challenger, beating elfi and JonnyREcco
I watched some of the first day of SEA qualifiers last night to determine the R16 participants (PiG and iaguz aren't required the play the qualifier, while KingKong, EnDerr, Blysk, and NXZ were automatically seeded into it). Below is a list of last season's participants (excluding the above) and they are ordered from the best finish to worst (those in green made it through again):
DemiLove - made it through
PsiArc - made it through
Lobo - made it through
Frustration - took out mOOnGLaDe on his way through
Law - made it through
Vaisravana - put in the loser's bracket by Azure and promptly lost to Seither to be eliminated
Fenner - knocked down to the loser's bracket by DevianT, but made it far enough in that bracket to qualify (he lost to Wally towards the end of it)
StriKE - after losing to Wally he gave Fenner a walkover in the loser's bracket and is out
Wally - beat StriKE to qualify
Vivid - made it through
New additions from last year's R16 are:
Azure (he beat Vaisravana and Law before getting knocked to the loser's bracket where he gave Law a walkover)
Albion (sent to the losers bracket and beat Vivid and Law on his way through)
Alopex (sent to the losers bracket by Law and beat no one noteworthy to qualify)
Probe (knocked to the losers bracket by Lobo, he took out mOOnGLaDe before giving Law a walkover)
It was interesting to see mOOnGLaDe attempting the qualifier after making the transition to caster (it did not go well). Other part-time or semi-retired players (like MightyKiwi) also crashed and burned, which is a good sign for the scene. Fenner struggled quite a bit and I wonder what happened to the form he showed in 2014. I'm not an expert on the SEA scene as I rarely see their tournaments (time zone issues), but there's not much reason to doubt that one of KingKong, EnDerr, or Blysk will make it through today's qualifier, but here's how Aligulac see's things going (keep in mind how insular the SEA scene is--these players all know each other very well; I don't know if Blysk is playing from Europe and it's worth noting KingKong hasn't played a competitive game since January, making him ripe for being beaten):
EnDerr vs Frustration - 71% in favour of the Zerg, who is 6-2 in series against the Protoss
Law vs Azure - essentially a dead heat for the odds, but I like the Terran here who won their last BO3
NXZ vs Fenner - the popular streamer is a huge underdog (22%), and given his struggles last night I see no reason to argue
DemiLove vs Wally - the Indian player is favoured (60%), although the two have split their BO3's in HOTS (3-3)
KingKong vs Vivid - the Korean is the overwhelming favourite (96%)
Albion vs Lobo - the Japanese player is slightly favoured (56%), although the better known player from Singapore has a much more impressive track record and I believe will win out
Blysk vs Probe - while Blysk is only slightly favoured (58%), and I see no reason for him to lose here
PsiArc vs Alopex - the Japanese Terran is favoured (66%), although they split their last two BO5's (both were played in March), but PsiArc was more impressive last night
Winner's Bracket
EnDerr vs Azure - the Philippine Zerg is again a huge favourite (75%); if this is Law instead then the odds are even more stilted (84%)
NXZ vs DemiLove - the Aussie Zerg is favoured (60%), and has won every BO3 the two have ever played (3-0)
KingKong vs Lobo - once again the Korean is a huge favourite (89%); if this is Albion the odds are a little kinder (79%)
Blysk vs PsiArc - the Terran is slightly favoured (52%), but lost his only ever BO3 vs Blysk a month ago and I have to lean towards the more accomplished player
EnDerr vs NXZ - the Aussie is the underdog (41%), although he's beaten EnDerr the only times they've played (2-0); I still lean towards the odds here
KingKong vs Blysk - the Korean is favoured (65%), and has never lost to Blysk; if this is PsiArc the odds are similar (66%)
EnDerr vs KingKong - it's like a broken record, but the Korean is favoured (70%); the two have traded their last six BO3s and I have to wonder if KingKong's inactivity makes him ripe for an upset
Loser's Bracket
Frustration vs Law - the Protoss is favoured (61%); if this is Azure instead the odds are essentially split, but the Terran has a dominant record so I'd give it to him
Fenner vs Wally - the latter is favoured (59%), and just beat Fenner last night
Vivid vs Albion - the Japanese player is heavily favoured (75%); Lobo is also favoured if Aligulac is right and he's here (59%)
Probe vs Alopex - the Protoss is favoured (58%) despite having a slight losing record to his opponent (4-5)
Frustration vs Azure - as referenced above the Terran is favoured here
Wally vs DemiLove - a rematch from above
Albion vs Lobo - yet another rematch where Aligulac and I differ on who moves forward
Probe vs PsiArc - the Terran is a slight favourite (52%), despite having lost his only matches against Probe (0-2); I still like the odds here; if this is Blysk he's even more favoured (58%)
Azure vs DemiLove - the Indian player is favoured (65%), despite a losing record against the Terran (4-5)
Lobo vs PsiArc - the Terran is heavily favoured (71%); if this is Albion it's a slightly better edge (74%); if this is Blysk he's favoured in each scenario (62% and 55%)
DemiLove vs NXZ - the Aussie is favoured (60%), and has a dominant record against his opponent (7-2)
PsiArc vs Blysk - a rematch that Aligulac and I see slightly differently
NXZ vs Blysk - slight edge to the Protoss (52%); if this is PsiArc then he is similarly favoured (52%)
Blysk vs EnDerr - the Zerg is slightly favoured (52%), and I think EnDerr should win here; if this is PsiArc the odds are slightly better for the Zerg (55%)
Not surprisingly, Aligulac see's the exact same players make it through to Challenger (KingKong and EnDerr). While I've agreed above, I think there's room for an upset either via Blysk (assuming he's not in Europe) or someone like PsiArc.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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