The R16 is complete, ending with Kaelaris giggles and failed Has cheese. In terms of predictions, I was 7-1 (incorrectly picking Welmu instead of Kane), while Aligulac was 6-2 and TL 5-3. All the Koreans advanced and none of them dropped a game to a foreigner. Snute's luck in avoiding Koreans continues while Polt must face a fellow countryman for the second round in a row. The biggest surprise was Kane, whose own expectations prior to the round was to fall out of it, but he played exceptionally well (particularly against Bunny). The final eight include 4 Zergs, 3 Terrans, and 1 Protoss (coming close to mirroring WCS Europe season one back in 2013). Onto the predictions.
Hydra vs TLO - the Korean is a massive favourite (87%); he's never lost against a foreigner in a ZvZ BO3, so while TLO is capable of upsets, I don't see it happening here
Kane vs ShoWTimE - the two least experienced of the top-eight, the German is favoured (67%) and has impressive PvZ stats, but there seems to be momentum behind the Canadian and I'll pick the upset here based on how well he's played the past two days
Snute vs Bunny - the Dane is favoured (60%), holding a significant edge against Snute when they've played against one another (18-9, although they've split their last two series); Bunny did not look very impressive against Kane, but the Norwegian can't turtle his way to victory in this matchup either--I'll stick with the odds
ForGG vs Polt - Captain America is a massive underdog, as ForGG is has an 83% chance to win and there's little reason to argue with that--ForGG has a better record in TvT vs Koreans and has beaten Polt in both their matches in HOTS by a collective 5-0 map score; Polt is only 1-8 in Korean TvT of late (I'm excluding his recent win over Nado)
Aligulac has Hydra, ShoWTimE, Bunny, and ForGG moving forward, while I have Kane instead of our only Protoss. This would give us the following final four:
Hydra vs Kane/ShoWTimE - as far as the odds are concerned, the ROOT Korean would prefer to face Kane (88%) over ShoWTimE (64%), although the difference there is largely made up of the German's excellent PvZ against his fellow foreigners (although he did beat HyuN at Fragbite); for Kane, other than a win over Life at Destiny I he has no notable wins over Korean Zergs; either way, I expect Hydra to make it through
ForGG vs Bunny - the Korean is the overwhelming favourite (86%); Bunny hasn't beaten a significant Korean in TvT since Cure and Polt back in August (going 0-5 since); the only Terran foreigner ForGG has lost too in HOTS is Happy so the result here seems inevitable
Both Aligulac and I have Hydra and ForGG moving forward. It's not surprisingly that the final will feature two of the four Koreans who participated in WCS this season (StarDust and Jaedong are incoming for season two).
Hydra vs ForGG - the ROOT player is favoured (55%); he's 8-0 vs Korean Terrans of late and this match-up used to be ForGG's Achilles heel, but he's been better of late, only losing to players like Life and Soulkey; I think there's hope for an upset (particularly given how Hydra lost to MorroW) and I'll give ForGG his first ever WCS championship.
Aligulac crowns Hydra, while I'm crowning ForGG.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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