The brackets have been release for Copa America, which this season determines who gets the two Premier spots for Latin America. With Aligulac as our guide, here's how it looks (unfortunately the specific matches aren't listed on TL yet, so I've made do with the round-robin predictor):
Group A
BLord
Erik
TerraN
Raivotar
Aligulac favours Erik and TerraN to make it through, which surprises me as BLord is the more familiar name. BLord beat TerraN the last time they played (January), and generally has a more impressive track record, so I think he and Erik will win their group.
Group B
Catz
WiNgiAN
ByRada
Bush
Odds favour Catz and ByRada and I see no reason to argue.
Group C
Cham
SenDoh
ReasoN
XionS
Aligulac picks Cham and ReasoN by an overwhelming margin and I see no reason to argue.
Group D
JimRising
CealeR
Smile
OdiN
The odds give this to JimRising and OdiN; I think the latter could be upset here as he's not great in ZvT (granted, CealeR is worse in the match-up), so I'll slot Smile here.
Can anyone challenge Catz and JimRising from repeating as the men to face the Premier players? Of the projected winners from above these three are the only ones with a reasonable chance:
ReasoN - 57% vs Catz (who he beat 2-0 in the first qualifier), 59% vs JimRising
Cham - 42% vs Catz, 45% vs JimRising
ByRada - 36% vs Catz (but he beat him 2-0 in their only meeting), 38% vs JimRising
I like to see fresh faces and I like Aligulac's notion that ReasoN will make it through; I'd normally pick Catz as the other player, but I think JimRising puts in more time so I'll give him the nod (assuming, of course, he isn't the one knocked out by ReasoN). Can any of these Zerg players challenge MajOr or Kelazhur? Aligulac says "no" emphatically; assuming both are on form they should have no problem with whoever they face (both won 3-0 last season).
In the Taiwan (plus Hong Kong & Macau) qualifier Slam and Cheetos qualified to face Has and Sen. Slam was in WCS Premier in 2014 (season three), but was knocked out very early in the season one qualifier this year. Cheetos I'm less familiar with and Challenger will be his biggest event to date. As above, TL has not posted the direct match-ups, but given how seeding has been handled elsewhere it should be Has-Cheetos, Sen-Slam. Here are the odds:
Has vs Cheetos - the Premier player is an overwhelming favourite (84%), although he only has a 2-1 record against his opponent
Sen vs Slam - the experienced Sen is heavily favoured (79%), with a dominating record against his opponent (23-12); it's worth remembering how Sen bombed out of Premier
Aligulac has the same players returning to Premier; I'd like to see Slam make it, but there's really no good reason to do so given his recent match history so I'll stick with the odds.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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